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EU Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Migration Crisis

European Union interior and home affairs ministers will hold an emergency meeting on September 14, the Luxembourg presidency said, in a bid to step up action to handle the biggest wave of migration since World War II.

Tribunal Finds Suzuki-VW Alliance Has Terminated

An arbitrator has ruled that an alliance between Suzuki Motor and VW has been terminated and ordered the German car maker to dispose of its 19.9% stake in Suzuki.

Ageas to Sell Hong Kong Life Insurance Business

Belgian insurance company Ageas said Sunday it will sell its Hong Kong Life insurance business to Chinese asset-management firm JD Capital for €1.23 billion.

Lebanese Official Defies Calls to Resign

A top Lebanese official defied demands from thousands of protesters over the weekend to step down, providing potential fuel for a growing antigovernment movement that is coalesced around uncollected trash.

Financially Strapped Greece Struggles With a Flood of Refugees

On the island of Lesbos, volunteers shore up efforts to house and feed tens of thousands of migrants.

Eni Reports Natural Gas Discovery off Egypt

Eni SpA said it made a massive natural-gas discovery off the coast of Egypt in what the Italian oil-and-gas company is calling the largest ever find in the Mediterranean Sea.

Fed’s Fischer: ‘Good Reason’ to Think U.S. Inflation Will Move Higher

The Fed‘s Stanley Fischer said there is “good reason” to think sluggish U.S. inflation will firm and move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% annual target, touching on a significant assessment facing the Fed ahead of its September policy meeting. 91

Malaysia Protesters Face Uphill Battle to Dislodge Najib

Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Malaysia’s capital over the weekend to rally against Prime Minister Najib Razak, but analysts say the leader of the resource-rich nation is still in a strong position.

Saudi-led Airstrike Kills 20 in Yemen

A Saudi-led air raid killed at least 20 workers at a factory in northern Yemen, a local official and a resident said, the latest carnage in the conflict between Yemeni rebels and forces allied with the country’s exiled president.

Turkey Bombs Islamic State Targets in Syria as Part of U.S.-Led Coalition

Turkish jets bombed Islamic State targets in Syria under the umbrella of the U.S.-led international coalition for the first time, the country’s government said, as Turkey expands its fight against the extremist group.

Egyptian Court Sentences Al Jazeera Journalists

An Egyptian judge sentenced a trio of Al Jazeera English journalists to three years in prison, prompting fresh criticism of the government’s clampdown on press and political freedoms.

New Orleans Honors Katrina’s Victims on Anniversary

A city known for its resilience marked the 10th anniversary of one of the worst natural disasters ever to hit the United States on Saturday, beginning with a somber ceremony at a memorial to Hurricane Katrina’s victims.

China Places Cap on Local Government Debt

Chinese lawmakers have placed a $2.5 trillion cap on local government debt as Beijing looks for ways to address one of the major impediments to its economy.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

Stock Swings Don’t Shake Investors

Stock indexes’ wildest week in years rattled investors and fueled expectations for further price swings, but it failed to squelch the belief U.S. markets remain the best place to put money. 60

Puerto Rico Extends Deadline for Draft Restructuring

Puerto Rico’s governor extended a Sunday deadline for a group of government officials to deliver a draft of a restructuring plan that is widely anticipated by investors.

Suppliers Feel Pain as Coal Miners Struggle

As big coal miners struggle, their equipment suppliers—thousands of firms sprinkled throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky—are scrambling to find new customers anywhere they can.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

Rebekah Brooks to Return to News Corp

Rebekah Brooks is expected to head News Corp’s U.K. division, a position similar to one she resigned from amid the phone-hacking scandal. Separately, Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing a police referral related to the hacking probe.

China’s Moves Won’t Help U.S. Tech Firms

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening local companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals.

Hackers Are the New Wizards

Chuck Wendig’s “Zeroes” reminds us how interconnected we all are, with electronic links all the way down to our refrigerators and cars, all of them hackable.

The Real Roots of Russia’s Revolution

Before revolution was a ruinous war. What led Russia into the conflagration?

Books

A Runaway Boy, a Theatrical Dynasty and a Cliffhanger

Brian Selznick’s ‘The Marvels’ is the latest in a loose trilogy including ‘Hugo’ and ‘Wonderstruck.’

Stieg Larsson’s Heroine Lives Again

David Lagercrantz’s “The Girl in the Spider’s Web” revives Lisbeth Salander in fitting style.

World War II’s Greatest Escape

Allied prisoners broke out of a German camp using ladders inspired by medieval siege tools.

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09

Style & Fashion

Phone Cases: The New It Fashion Accessory?

Over the past few years, the iPhone case has gone from pragmatic protector to style statement. One writer plays catch up.

Music

Foals’ ‘What Went Down’ Is a Visceral Confessional

Yannis Philippakis, the lead singer whose energetic stage presence and novelistic lyrics have made Foals one of British rock’s most compelling propositions, talks about the band’s fourth album.

WSJ Blogs

Real-time commentary and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Die Zeitreise der Banken

Bankenchefs geben sich neuerdings zurückhaltend. Keiner wagt konkret zu sagen, was die Zukunft bringt. Wer weiß schon, wie stark die Inflation in 10 Jahren sein wird, welche Staaten erfolgreich ihre Reformen umsetzen und ob der Euro die Schuldenkrise in Europa überlebt. Wenn überhaupt, versuchen sich die Spitzen der Branche in Durchhalteparolen und Zweckoptimismus.

dapd
Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance, sieht schon die nächste Krise nahen.

Umso mehr lässt es aufhorchen, wenn ausgerechnet Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance (IIF), einen sehr kritischen Blick in die Zukunft wagt und schon die nächste Krise nahen sieht. Obwohl sich das makroökonomische Umfeld in den vergangenen Monaten global stabilisiert hat, zeichnen sich laut Dallara neue Risiken ab. Vor allem die Niedrigzinspolitik der US-Notenbank bereitet ihm Sorgen. Ein Richtungswechsel, also höhere Zinsen, könnte die Investoren unvorbereitet treffen, das berge die Gefahr von neuen Verwerfungen an den Finanzmärkten, warnt Dallara.

Mit seiner kritischen Prognose steht Dallara nicht alleine da. Die Strategen der Unternehmensberatung Oliver Wyman zeichnen in einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2011 eine eher beunruhigende Zeitreise in das Jahr 2015. Sie beginnt mit dem fiktiven Scheitern der weltweit ältesten Bank und erklärt im Rückblick auf die Jahre 2011 bis 2015, was alles schief gelaufen ist.

Das Unglück beginnt im Jahr 2011 – genauer gesagt damit, dass wegen der strengeren Vorschriften für Banken immer mehr Geld und nicht ausgelastete Talente in die Welt der Schattenbanken abwandern. Die Banken dürfen nicht mehr so risikoreich wie früher investieren und haben Schwierigkeiten, ihre Aktionäre und Kunden mit den mageren Renditen zu halten. Einige Institute fliehen in die Märkte rohstoffreicher Schwellenländer wie Brasilien und Russland, wo die Banken weniger streng reguliert sind. Doch in diesen Ländern bildet sich wegen hoher Staatsausgaben schon die nächste Blase. Die Staaten leihen sich von ausländischen Investoren Geld, um große Projekte zu finanzieren, und übernehmen sich dabei.

Ausgelöst durch das unterdrückte Wachstum sowohl in den entwickelten Ländern als auch den Emerging Markets fällt die Wirtschaftswelt im Szenario von Oliver Wyman schließlich in eine Rezession. Die nüchterne Bilanz der Strategen: Wieder nichts gelernt aus der Krise. Auf der Jagd nach Rendite haben Banker keinen Schatz gefunden, sondern wieder nur einen Topf mit giftigem Abfall. Die schärfere Regulierung konnte die neue Blase nicht verhindern. Das Resümee: Die Subprime-Krise im Jahr 2007 wird nicht die letzte Finanzkrise sein, die nächste steht schon vor der Tür.

Die Studie will sich lösen von dem Versuch, die Zukunft vorherzusagen. Das Undenkbare denken, sich verschiedene Szenarien vorzustellen, ist ein Weg, sich zu öffnen und nicht nur die passenden Argumente für das eigene Gedankenkonstrukt zu suchen. Dazu rief der Manager und Autor Arie de Geus bereits in den 80er Jahren auf.

Mit ihrem Szenario wollen die Autoren nach eigenem Bekunden den Leser nicht deprimieren, sondern früh genug auf Fehlentwicklungen hinweisen. Die Regulierer sollten ihr Augenmerk nicht allein darauf richten, die Risiken aus den Banken zu entfernen. Denn dann, so warnen die Strategen, würden diese Risiken woanders genommen. In den Schattenbanken, die für die Aufseher viel schwieriger zu kontrollieren seien. Ihr Tipp: Neben regelmäßigen Stresstests der Banken und Versicherer sollten die Regulierungsbehörden die Belastbarkeit des gesamten Finanzsystems auf den Prüfstand stellen – und für den Fall der Fälle vorbereitet sein.

Dieser Ansatz hat Charme. Er ist vermutlich der beste, um bei der nächsten Krise nicht so überstürzt wie bisher zu handeln. Wenn die Regulierer es wagen, sich regelmäßig ein Worst-Case-Szenario auszumalen, ist es auch gleichzeitig der sicherste Weg, eben dieses zu verhindern.

Update: Die zitierte Studie stammt bereits aus dem Jahr 2011. Wir haben das in dem entsprechenden Absatz berichtigt.

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    • Die besagte Oliver Wyman Studie wurde vor mehr als einem Jahr zum Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos veröffentlicht ... (die aktuelle Studie zum diesjährigen WEF hat ein völlig anderes Thema)

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

EU Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Migration Crisis

European Union interior and home affairs ministers will hold an emergency meeting on September 14, the Luxembourg presidency said, in a bid to step up action to handle the biggest wave of migration since World War II.

Tribunal Finds Suzuki-VW Alliance Has Terminated

An arbitrator has ruled that an alliance between Suzuki Motor and VW has been terminated and ordered the German car maker to dispose of its 19.9% stake in Suzuki.

Ageas to Sell Hong Kong Life Insurance Business

Belgian insurance company Ageas said Sunday it will sell its Hong Kong Life insurance business to Chinese asset-management firm JD Capital for €1.23 billion.

Lebanese Official Defies Calls to Resign

A top Lebanese official defied demands from thousands of protesters over the weekend to step down, providing potential fuel for a growing antigovernment movement that is coalesced around uncollected trash.

Financially Strapped Greece Struggles With a Flood of Refugees

On the island of Lesbos, volunteers shore up efforts to house and feed tens of thousands of migrants.

Eni Reports Natural Gas Discovery off Egypt

Eni SpA said it made a massive natural-gas discovery off the coast of Egypt in what the Italian oil-and-gas company is calling the largest ever find in the Mediterranean Sea.

Fed’s Fischer: ‘Good Reason’ to Think U.S. Inflation Will Move Higher

The Fed‘s Stanley Fischer said there is “good reason” to think sluggish U.S. inflation will firm and move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% annual target, touching on a significant assessment facing the Fed ahead of its September policy meeting. 91

Malaysia Protesters Face Uphill Battle to Dislodge Najib

Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Malaysia’s capital over the weekend to rally against Prime Minister Najib Razak, but analysts say the leader of the resource-rich nation is still in a strong position.

Saudi-led Airstrike Kills 20 in Yemen

A Saudi-led air raid killed at least 20 workers at a factory in northern Yemen, a local official and a resident said, the latest carnage in the conflict between Yemeni rebels and forces allied with the country’s exiled president.

Turkey Bombs Islamic State Targets in Syria as Part of U.S.-Led Coalition

Turkish jets bombed Islamic State targets in Syria under the umbrella of the U.S.-led international coalition for the first time, the country’s government said, as Turkey expands its fight against the extremist group.

Egyptian Court Sentences Al Jazeera Journalists

An Egyptian judge sentenced a trio of Al Jazeera English journalists to three years in prison, prompting fresh criticism of the government’s clampdown on press and political freedoms.

New Orleans Honors Katrina’s Victims on Anniversary

A city known for its resilience marked the 10th anniversary of one of the worst natural disasters ever to hit the United States on Saturday, beginning with a somber ceremony at a memorial to Hurricane Katrina’s victims.

China Places Cap on Local Government Debt

Chinese lawmakers have placed a $2.5 trillion cap on local government debt as Beijing looks for ways to address one of the major impediments to its economy.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

Stock Swings Don’t Shake Investors

Stock indexes’ wildest week in years rattled investors and fueled expectations for further price swings, but it failed to squelch the belief U.S. markets remain the best place to put money. 60

Puerto Rico Extends Deadline for Draft Restructuring

Puerto Rico’s governor extended a Sunday deadline for a group of government officials to deliver a draft of a restructuring plan that is widely anticipated by investors.

Suppliers Feel Pain as Coal Miners Struggle

As big coal miners struggle, their equipment suppliers—thousands of firms sprinkled throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky—are scrambling to find new customers anywhere they can.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

Rebekah Brooks to Return to News Corp

Rebekah Brooks is expected to head News Corp’s U.K. division, a position similar to one she resigned from amid the phone-hacking scandal. Separately, Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing a police referral related to the hacking probe.

China’s Moves Won’t Help U.S. Tech Firms

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening local companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals.

Hackers Are the New Wizards

Chuck Wendig’s “Zeroes” reminds us how interconnected we all are, with electronic links all the way down to our refrigerators and cars, all of them hackable.

The Real Roots of Russia’s Revolution

Before revolution was a ruinous war. What led Russia into the conflagration?

Books

A Runaway Boy, a Theatrical Dynasty and a Cliffhanger

Brian Selznick’s ‘The Marvels’ is the latest in a loose trilogy including ‘Hugo’ and ‘Wonderstruck.’

Stieg Larsson’s Heroine Lives Again

David Lagercrantz’s “The Girl in the Spider’s Web” revives Lisbeth Salander in fitting style.

World War II’s Greatest Escape

Allied prisoners broke out of a German camp using ladders inspired by medieval siege tools.

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09