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EU Ministers Push for Action on Migrant Crisis

Germany, France and the U.K. pushed for a faster response in dealing with the continent’s migration crisis as Hungarian police detained a fifth person in connection with the deaths of 71 migrants found in a truck in Austria.

Striking Workers Block French Port

The labor dispute is preventing travelers from boarding ferries on both sides of the English Channel.

Abreast of the Market

Rocky Markets Could Be Good for These Stocks

Exchanges and market makers are getting a fresh look from portfolio managers seeking out investments likely to benefit from the large market swings.

Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan

Federal Reserve officials emerged from a week of head-spinning financial turbulence largely sticking to their plan to raise U.S. interest rates before the end of the year.

Crises Put First Dents in Xi Jinping’s Power

Before a planned visit to the U.S., the Chinese president’s image as a bold leader is being undermined by his botched handling of the stock market rout and the country’s economic slowdown.

VW Is Told to Shed Suzuki Stake

An international court has ordered Volkswagen of Germany to sell its nearly 20% stake in Suzuki, allowing the Japanese auto maker to extricate itself from the tie-up after a four-year struggle.

Eni Reports Huge Natural-Gas Discovery off Egypt

Eni SpA said it made a massive natural-gas discovery off the coast of Egypt in what the Italian oil-and-gas company is calling the largest ever find in the Mediterranean Sea.

U.A.E. Takes Lead in Southern Yemen

U.A.E. forces prevented Houthi rebels in Yemen from overrunning the Yemeni port city of Aden, and now also reluctantly find themselves in the business of nation-building.

At Least 11 Die in Saudi Arabia Fire

A large fire at a residential compound of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant killed at least 11 people and injured more than 200, officials said. The cause of the fire was unknown.

Rice Condemns Pakistan-Based Militant Attacks in Afghanistan

U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice on Sunday told top civilian and military leaders in Islamabad that attacks in neighboring Afghanistan by Pakistan-based militants were “absolutely unacceptable,” according to a senior American official.

Egypt Rejects Criticism of Journalists’ Jail Sentences

Egypt’s foreign ministry rejected international criticism of a court’s decision to sentence a team of Al Jazeera journalists to three years in prison, summoning the British ambassador to Egypt for condemning the verdict.

Lebanese Official Defies Calls to Resign

A top Lebanese official defied demands from thousands of protesters over the weekend to step down, providing potential fuel for a growing antigovernment movement that is coalesced around uncollected trash.

China Places Cap on Local Government Debt

Chinese lawmakers have placed a $2.5 trillion cap on local government debt as Beijing looks for ways to address one of the major impediments to its economy.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

BNY Mellon Races to Fix Pricing Glitches

Executives at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. are racing against the clock to make it through a backlog of pricing issues before the markets open Monday morning.

A Bentley, Secret Emails and a Credit-Card Antitrust Case. The Strange Life of Lawyer Keila Ravelo

When federal agents showed up at Keila Ravelo’s home three days before Christmas, they kicked off a chain of events that could send her to prison and scuttle the biggest antitrust settlement in U.S. history.

Suppliers Feel Pain as Coal Miners Struggle

As big coal miners struggle, their equipment suppliers—thousands of businesses sprinkled throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky—are scrambling to find new customers anywhere they can. 69

Ageas to Sell Hong Kong Life Insurance Business

Belgian insurance company Ageas said Sunday it will sell its Hong Kong Life insurance business to Chinese asset-management firm JD Capital for €1.23 billion.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

Rebekah Brooks to Return to News Corp

Rebekah Brooks is expected to head News Corp’s U.K. division, a position similar to one she resigned from amid the phone-hacking scandal. Separately, Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing a police referral related to the hacking probe.

Technology

Apple Escalates Ad-Blockers Fight

Apple’s move to make it easier to block ads on iPhones and iPads is troubling publishers and heightening tensions with its Silicon Valley neighbors like Google.

Book Reviews

Hackers Are the New Wizards

Chuck Wendig’s “Zeroes” reminds us how interconnected we all are, with electronic links all the way down to our refrigerators and cars, all of them hackable.

World War II’s Greatest Escape

Allied prisoners broke out of a German camp using ladders inspired by medieval siege tools.

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09

Style & Fashion

Phone Cases: The New It Fashion Accessory?

Over the past few years, the iPhone case has gone from pragmatic protector to style statement. One writer plays catch up.

Music

Foals’ ‘What Went Down’ Is a Visceral Confessional

Yannis Philippakis, the lead singer whose energetic stage presence and novelistic lyrics have made Foals one of British rock’s most compelling propositions, talks about the band’s fourth album.

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Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Die Zeitreise der Banken

Bankenchefs geben sich neuerdings zurückhaltend. Keiner wagt konkret zu sagen, was die Zukunft bringt. Wer weiß schon, wie stark die Inflation in 10 Jahren sein wird, welche Staaten erfolgreich ihre Reformen umsetzen und ob der Euro die Schuldenkrise in Europa überlebt. Wenn überhaupt, versuchen sich die Spitzen der Branche in Durchhalteparolen und Zweckoptimismus.

dapd
Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance, sieht schon die nächste Krise nahen.

Umso mehr lässt es aufhorchen, wenn ausgerechnet Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance (IIF), einen sehr kritischen Blick in die Zukunft wagt und schon die nächste Krise nahen sieht. Obwohl sich das makroökonomische Umfeld in den vergangenen Monaten global stabilisiert hat, zeichnen sich laut Dallara neue Risiken ab. Vor allem die Niedrigzinspolitik der US-Notenbank bereitet ihm Sorgen. Ein Richtungswechsel, also höhere Zinsen, könnte die Investoren unvorbereitet treffen, das berge die Gefahr von neuen Verwerfungen an den Finanzmärkten, warnt Dallara.

Mit seiner kritischen Prognose steht Dallara nicht alleine da. Die Strategen der Unternehmensberatung Oliver Wyman zeichnen in einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2011 eine eher beunruhigende Zeitreise in das Jahr 2015. Sie beginnt mit dem fiktiven Scheitern der weltweit ältesten Bank und erklärt im Rückblick auf die Jahre 2011 bis 2015, was alles schief gelaufen ist.

Das Unglück beginnt im Jahr 2011 – genauer gesagt damit, dass wegen der strengeren Vorschriften für Banken immer mehr Geld und nicht ausgelastete Talente in die Welt der Schattenbanken abwandern. Die Banken dürfen nicht mehr so risikoreich wie früher investieren und haben Schwierigkeiten, ihre Aktionäre und Kunden mit den mageren Renditen zu halten. Einige Institute fliehen in die Märkte rohstoffreicher Schwellenländer wie Brasilien und Russland, wo die Banken weniger streng reguliert sind. Doch in diesen Ländern bildet sich wegen hoher Staatsausgaben schon die nächste Blase. Die Staaten leihen sich von ausländischen Investoren Geld, um große Projekte zu finanzieren, und übernehmen sich dabei.

Ausgelöst durch das unterdrückte Wachstum sowohl in den entwickelten Ländern als auch den Emerging Markets fällt die Wirtschaftswelt im Szenario von Oliver Wyman schließlich in eine Rezession. Die nüchterne Bilanz der Strategen: Wieder nichts gelernt aus der Krise. Auf der Jagd nach Rendite haben Banker keinen Schatz gefunden, sondern wieder nur einen Topf mit giftigem Abfall. Die schärfere Regulierung konnte die neue Blase nicht verhindern. Das Resümee: Die Subprime-Krise im Jahr 2007 wird nicht die letzte Finanzkrise sein, die nächste steht schon vor der Tür.

Die Studie will sich lösen von dem Versuch, die Zukunft vorherzusagen. Das Undenkbare denken, sich verschiedene Szenarien vorzustellen, ist ein Weg, sich zu öffnen und nicht nur die passenden Argumente für das eigene Gedankenkonstrukt zu suchen. Dazu rief der Manager und Autor Arie de Geus bereits in den 80er Jahren auf.

Mit ihrem Szenario wollen die Autoren nach eigenem Bekunden den Leser nicht deprimieren, sondern früh genug auf Fehlentwicklungen hinweisen. Die Regulierer sollten ihr Augenmerk nicht allein darauf richten, die Risiken aus den Banken zu entfernen. Denn dann, so warnen die Strategen, würden diese Risiken woanders genommen. In den Schattenbanken, die für die Aufseher viel schwieriger zu kontrollieren seien. Ihr Tipp: Neben regelmäßigen Stresstests der Banken und Versicherer sollten die Regulierungsbehörden die Belastbarkeit des gesamten Finanzsystems auf den Prüfstand stellen – und für den Fall der Fälle vorbereitet sein.

Dieser Ansatz hat Charme. Er ist vermutlich der beste, um bei der nächsten Krise nicht so überstürzt wie bisher zu handeln. Wenn die Regulierer es wagen, sich regelmäßig ein Worst-Case-Szenario auszumalen, ist es auch gleichzeitig der sicherste Weg, eben dieses zu verhindern.

Update: Die zitierte Studie stammt bereits aus dem Jahr 2011. Wir haben das in dem entsprechenden Absatz berichtigt.

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    • Die besagte Oliver Wyman Studie wurde vor mehr als einem Jahr zum Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos veröffentlicht ... (die aktuelle Studie zum diesjährigen WEF hat ein völlig anderes Thema)

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

EU Ministers Push for Action on Migrant Crisis

Germany, France and the U.K. pushed for a faster response in dealing with the continent’s migration crisis as Hungarian police detained a fifth person in connection with the deaths of 71 migrants found in a truck in Austria.

Striking Workers Block French Port

The labor dispute is preventing travelers from boarding ferries on both sides of the English Channel.

Abreast of the Market

Rocky Markets Could Be Good for These Stocks

Exchanges and market makers are getting a fresh look from portfolio managers seeking out investments likely to benefit from the large market swings.

Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan

Federal Reserve officials emerged from a week of head-spinning financial turbulence largely sticking to their plan to raise U.S. interest rates before the end of the year.

Crises Put First Dents in Xi Jinping’s Power

Before a planned visit to the U.S., the Chinese president’s image as a bold leader is being undermined by his botched handling of the stock market rout and the country’s economic slowdown.

VW Is Told to Shed Suzuki Stake

An international court has ordered Volkswagen of Germany to sell its nearly 20% stake in Suzuki, allowing the Japanese auto maker to extricate itself from the tie-up after a four-year struggle.

Eni Reports Huge Natural-Gas Discovery off Egypt

Eni SpA said it made a massive natural-gas discovery off the coast of Egypt in what the Italian oil-and-gas company is calling the largest ever find in the Mediterranean Sea.

U.A.E. Takes Lead in Southern Yemen

U.A.E. forces prevented Houthi rebels in Yemen from overrunning the Yemeni port city of Aden, and now also reluctantly find themselves in the business of nation-building.

At Least 11 Die in Saudi Arabia Fire

A large fire at a residential compound of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant killed at least 11 people and injured more than 200, officials said. The cause of the fire was unknown.

Rice Condemns Pakistan-Based Militant Attacks in Afghanistan

U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice on Sunday told top civilian and military leaders in Islamabad that attacks in neighboring Afghanistan by Pakistan-based militants were “absolutely unacceptable,” according to a senior American official.

Egypt Rejects Criticism of Journalists’ Jail Sentences

Egypt’s foreign ministry rejected international criticism of a court’s decision to sentence a team of Al Jazeera journalists to three years in prison, summoning the British ambassador to Egypt for condemning the verdict.

Lebanese Official Defies Calls to Resign

A top Lebanese official defied demands from thousands of protesters over the weekend to step down, providing potential fuel for a growing antigovernment movement that is coalesced around uncollected trash.

China Places Cap on Local Government Debt

Chinese lawmakers have placed a $2.5 trillion cap on local government debt as Beijing looks for ways to address one of the major impediments to its economy.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

BNY Mellon Races to Fix Pricing Glitches

Executives at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. are racing against the clock to make it through a backlog of pricing issues before the markets open Monday morning.

A Bentley, Secret Emails and a Credit-Card Antitrust Case. The Strange Life of Lawyer Keila Ravelo

When federal agents showed up at Keila Ravelo’s home three days before Christmas, they kicked off a chain of events that could send her to prison and scuttle the biggest antitrust settlement in U.S. history.

Suppliers Feel Pain as Coal Miners Struggle

As big coal miners struggle, their equipment suppliers—thousands of businesses sprinkled throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky—are scrambling to find new customers anywhere they can. 69

Ageas to Sell Hong Kong Life Insurance Business

Belgian insurance company Ageas said Sunday it will sell its Hong Kong Life insurance business to Chinese asset-management firm JD Capital for €1.23 billion.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

Rebekah Brooks to Return to News Corp

Rebekah Brooks is expected to head News Corp’s U.K. division, a position similar to one she resigned from amid the phone-hacking scandal. Separately, Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing a police referral related to the hacking probe.

Technology

Apple Escalates Ad-Blockers Fight

Apple’s move to make it easier to block ads on iPhones and iPads is troubling publishers and heightening tensions with its Silicon Valley neighbors like Google.

Book Reviews

Hackers Are the New Wizards

Chuck Wendig’s “Zeroes” reminds us how interconnected we all are, with electronic links all the way down to our refrigerators and cars, all of them hackable.

World War II’s Greatest Escape

Allied prisoners broke out of a German camp using ladders inspired by medieval siege tools.

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09