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Austria Struggles to Identify Migrants’ Bodies

Veteran police investigators say they have never faced a task like identifying the 71 bodies of would-be refugees unloaded from the back of a truck found abandoned along a highway last week.

Apple’s Latest Challenge: Topping Its Own Success

Apple’s iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus reignited sales growth for the smartphone. But analysts predict muted growth for its latest models due out next week.

Chinese Navy Ships Operating in Bering Sea Off Alaska Coast

Five Chinese navy ships are currently operating in the Bering Sea, off the coast of Alaska, the first time the U.S. military has seen such activity in the area. 731

Capital Account

For Russia, Oil Collapse Has Soviet Echoes

For most countries, the economic slowdown in China and the accompanying slump in commodity prices represent something between nuisance and pothole. For Russia, they are a catastrophe, writes Greg Ip. 76

Inside Uber’s Fight With Its Chinese Nemesis

China’s multibillion-dollar ride-hailing market has erupted into a brawl between Uber and Beijing startup Didi Kuaidi.

Obama Locks in Votes to Secure Iran Nuclear Deal

President Barack Obama locked in enough support in Congress to ensure he can overcome bipartisan opposition and implement a landmark nuclear accord with Iran. 1804

U.S. Tech Firms Make Pilgrimage to Brussels

The giants of Silicon Valley are bulking up in the European Union’s de facto capital, hiring lobbyists and jostling for the favor of the Web’s most ambitious regulators.

South African Gold Faces Uncertain Future

South Africa’s gold mining industry must undergo radical change to cope with falling prices, intensifying labor disputes and the surging cost of ever-deeper exploration.

Small Firms Slow to Embrace Chip-Card System

Many small businesses aren’t racing to update their checkout systems ahead of an Oct. 1 shift that will put merchants on the hook for some fraudulent card charges.

Vivendi Earnings Rise

Vivendi SA on Wednesday reported a rise in second-quarter net profit, boosted by a windfall from the sale of its Brazilian telecom unit GVT to Telefónica SA.

Elves, Ninjas, Currency Power Lego Earnings

Lego said its 31% jump in first-half profit and 23% rise in revenue were fueled by strong sales of its Ninjago and Elves sets but also by the weakness of the Danish krone and the euro.

Private-Equity Firms Explore Bids for Petco

Private-equity firms are examining a possible purchase of Petco Holdings, the pet-store chain that filed to go public last month.

Asian Shares Rise; China Closed

Asian stocks rose after U.S. markets restored some stability. China markets are closed on Thursday and Friday for a holiday.

Giant U.S. Pension Fund to Propose Shift Away From Stocks, Bonds

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the nation’s second-largest pension fund, is considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide. 112

Malaysian Fund 1MDB Has Tens of Millions of Dollars Frozen

Swiss authorities said they had frozen funds worth tens of millions of dollars linked to 1Malaysia Development Berhad as part of an investigation into alleged corruption.

Gas Discovery in Egypt Troubles Israel

Israeli officials have expressed concern that the discovery of an extensive gas field off the coast of Egypt could upend Israeli development of its energy resources.

Environment

World Tree Count Climbs

There are slightly more than three trillion trees in the world, a figure that dwarfs previous estimates, according to the most comprehensive census yet of global forestation. 166

Masked Gunmen Kidnap 18 Turkish Workers in Baghdad

Identities of the gunmen in an early-morning raid on a sports stadium weren’t immediately known, as Turks in Iraq were seized for a second time in the past year.

At Least 22 Killed in Suicide Bombings at Mosque in Yemen

A pair of suicide bombings killed a least 22 people Wednesday at a mosque in San’a, just hours after a gunman killed two Red Cross workers.

Solitary Confinement Poses ‘Grave Problem,’ Study Says

Prisons are holding as many as 100,000 inmates in solitary confinement, a striking figure that poses a “grave problem” for the criminal justice system, according to a study. 53

Emails Point to Large Role for Clinton Adviser Blumenthal

Longtime aide Sidney Blumenthal maintained an outsize role with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite being blocked from taking a job at the department. 189

Biden’s Florida Trip Draws Campaign-Level Attention

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Court Weighs Request to Immediately Stop Phone-Data Collection

An appeals court panel is considering whether to allow the government to continue the bulk collection of phone records during a six-month transition period until a new law kicks in prohibiting the controversial program.

Search Continues for Three Suspects After Illinois Policeman Killed

As a small northern Illinois community mourned a popular veteran police officer who was fatally shot while on duty, authorities scoured the area overnight in search of three men wanted in his slaying. 72

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Hungarian Police Struggle to Control Migrants

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Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Die Zeitreise der Banken

Bankenchefs geben sich neuerdings zurückhaltend. Keiner wagt konkret zu sagen, was die Zukunft bringt. Wer weiß schon, wie stark die Inflation in 10 Jahren sein wird, welche Staaten erfolgreich ihre Reformen umsetzen und ob der Euro die Schuldenkrise in Europa überlebt. Wenn überhaupt, versuchen sich die Spitzen der Branche in Durchhalteparolen und Zweckoptimismus.

dapd
Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance, sieht schon die nächste Krise nahen.

Umso mehr lässt es aufhorchen, wenn ausgerechnet Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance (IIF), einen sehr kritischen Blick in die Zukunft wagt und schon die nächste Krise nahen sieht. Obwohl sich das makroökonomische Umfeld in den vergangenen Monaten global stabilisiert hat, zeichnen sich laut Dallara neue Risiken ab. Vor allem die Niedrigzinspolitik der US-Notenbank bereitet ihm Sorgen. Ein Richtungswechsel, also höhere Zinsen, könnte die Investoren unvorbereitet treffen, das berge die Gefahr von neuen Verwerfungen an den Finanzmärkten, warnt Dallara.

Mit seiner kritischen Prognose steht Dallara nicht alleine da. Die Strategen der Unternehmensberatung Oliver Wyman zeichnen in einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2011 eine eher beunruhigende Zeitreise in das Jahr 2015. Sie beginnt mit dem fiktiven Scheitern der weltweit ältesten Bank und erklärt im Rückblick auf die Jahre 2011 bis 2015, was alles schief gelaufen ist.

Das Unglück beginnt im Jahr 2011 – genauer gesagt damit, dass wegen der strengeren Vorschriften für Banken immer mehr Geld und nicht ausgelastete Talente in die Welt der Schattenbanken abwandern. Die Banken dürfen nicht mehr so risikoreich wie früher investieren und haben Schwierigkeiten, ihre Aktionäre und Kunden mit den mageren Renditen zu halten. Einige Institute fliehen in die Märkte rohstoffreicher Schwellenländer wie Brasilien und Russland, wo die Banken weniger streng reguliert sind. Doch in diesen Ländern bildet sich wegen hoher Staatsausgaben schon die nächste Blase. Die Staaten leihen sich von ausländischen Investoren Geld, um große Projekte zu finanzieren, und übernehmen sich dabei.

Ausgelöst durch das unterdrückte Wachstum sowohl in den entwickelten Ländern als auch den Emerging Markets fällt die Wirtschaftswelt im Szenario von Oliver Wyman schließlich in eine Rezession. Die nüchterne Bilanz der Strategen: Wieder nichts gelernt aus der Krise. Auf der Jagd nach Rendite haben Banker keinen Schatz gefunden, sondern wieder nur einen Topf mit giftigem Abfall. Die schärfere Regulierung konnte die neue Blase nicht verhindern. Das Resümee: Die Subprime-Krise im Jahr 2007 wird nicht die letzte Finanzkrise sein, die nächste steht schon vor der Tür.

Die Studie will sich lösen von dem Versuch, die Zukunft vorherzusagen. Das Undenkbare denken, sich verschiedene Szenarien vorzustellen, ist ein Weg, sich zu öffnen und nicht nur die passenden Argumente für das eigene Gedankenkonstrukt zu suchen. Dazu rief der Manager und Autor Arie de Geus bereits in den 80er Jahren auf.

Mit ihrem Szenario wollen die Autoren nach eigenem Bekunden den Leser nicht deprimieren, sondern früh genug auf Fehlentwicklungen hinweisen. Die Regulierer sollten ihr Augenmerk nicht allein darauf richten, die Risiken aus den Banken zu entfernen. Denn dann, so warnen die Strategen, würden diese Risiken woanders genommen. In den Schattenbanken, die für die Aufseher viel schwieriger zu kontrollieren seien. Ihr Tipp: Neben regelmäßigen Stresstests der Banken und Versicherer sollten die Regulierungsbehörden die Belastbarkeit des gesamten Finanzsystems auf den Prüfstand stellen – und für den Fall der Fälle vorbereitet sein.

Dieser Ansatz hat Charme. Er ist vermutlich der beste, um bei der nächsten Krise nicht so überstürzt wie bisher zu handeln. Wenn die Regulierer es wagen, sich regelmäßig ein Worst-Case-Szenario auszumalen, ist es auch gleichzeitig der sicherste Weg, eben dieses zu verhindern.

Update: Die zitierte Studie stammt bereits aus dem Jahr 2011. Wir haben das in dem entsprechenden Absatz berichtigt.

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    • Die besagte Oliver Wyman Studie wurde vor mehr als einem Jahr zum Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos veröffentlicht ... (die aktuelle Studie zum diesjährigen WEF hat ein völlig anderes Thema)

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

Austria Struggles to Identify Migrants’ Bodies

Veteran police investigators say they have never faced a task like identifying the 71 bodies of would-be refugees unloaded from the back of a truck found abandoned along a highway last week.

Apple’s Latest Challenge: Topping Its Own Success

Apple’s iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus reignited sales growth for the smartphone. But analysts predict muted growth for its latest models due out next week.

Chinese Navy Ships Operating in Bering Sea Off Alaska Coast

Five Chinese navy ships are currently operating in the Bering Sea, off the coast of Alaska, the first time the U.S. military has seen such activity in the area. 731

Capital Account

For Russia, Oil Collapse Has Soviet Echoes

For most countries, the economic slowdown in China and the accompanying slump in commodity prices represent something between nuisance and pothole. For Russia, they are a catastrophe, writes Greg Ip. 76

Inside Uber’s Fight With Its Chinese Nemesis

China’s multibillion-dollar ride-hailing market has erupted into a brawl between Uber and Beijing startup Didi Kuaidi.

Obama Locks in Votes to Secure Iran Nuclear Deal

President Barack Obama locked in enough support in Congress to ensure he can overcome bipartisan opposition and implement a landmark nuclear accord with Iran. 1804

U.S. Tech Firms Make Pilgrimage to Brussels

The giants of Silicon Valley are bulking up in the European Union’s de facto capital, hiring lobbyists and jostling for the favor of the Web’s most ambitious regulators.

South African Gold Faces Uncertain Future

South Africa’s gold mining industry must undergo radical change to cope with falling prices, intensifying labor disputes and the surging cost of ever-deeper exploration.

Small Firms Slow to Embrace Chip-Card System

Many small businesses aren’t racing to update their checkout systems ahead of an Oct. 1 shift that will put merchants on the hook for some fraudulent card charges.

Vivendi Earnings Rise

Vivendi SA on Wednesday reported a rise in second-quarter net profit, boosted by a windfall from the sale of its Brazilian telecom unit GVT to Telefónica SA.

Elves, Ninjas, Currency Power Lego Earnings

Lego said its 31% jump in first-half profit and 23% rise in revenue were fueled by strong sales of its Ninjago and Elves sets but also by the weakness of the Danish krone and the euro.

Private-Equity Firms Explore Bids for Petco

Private-equity firms are examining a possible purchase of Petco Holdings, the pet-store chain that filed to go public last month.

Asian Shares Rise; China Closed

Asian stocks rose after U.S. markets restored some stability. China markets are closed on Thursday and Friday for a holiday.

Giant U.S. Pension Fund to Propose Shift Away From Stocks, Bonds

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the nation’s second-largest pension fund, is considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide. 112

Malaysian Fund 1MDB Has Tens of Millions of Dollars Frozen

Swiss authorities said they had frozen funds worth tens of millions of dollars linked to 1Malaysia Development Berhad as part of an investigation into alleged corruption.

Gas Discovery in Egypt Troubles Israel

Israeli officials have expressed concern that the discovery of an extensive gas field off the coast of Egypt could upend Israeli development of its energy resources.

Environment

World Tree Count Climbs

There are slightly more than three trillion trees in the world, a figure that dwarfs previous estimates, according to the most comprehensive census yet of global forestation. 166

Masked Gunmen Kidnap 18 Turkish Workers in Baghdad

Identities of the gunmen in an early-morning raid on a sports stadium weren’t immediately known, as Turks in Iraq were seized for a second time in the past year.

At Least 22 Killed in Suicide Bombings at Mosque in Yemen

A pair of suicide bombings killed a least 22 people Wednesday at a mosque in San’a, just hours after a gunman killed two Red Cross workers.

Solitary Confinement Poses ‘Grave Problem,’ Study Says

Prisons are holding as many as 100,000 inmates in solitary confinement, a striking figure that poses a “grave problem” for the criminal justice system, according to a study. 53

Emails Point to Large Role for Clinton Adviser Blumenthal

Longtime aide Sidney Blumenthal maintained an outsize role with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite being blocked from taking a job at the department. 189

Biden’s Florida Trip Draws Campaign-Level Attention

Vice President Joe Biden received full-court national attention for an otherwise routine visit to Miami Dade College, with dozens of television cameras, photographers and reporters there to cover his 30 minutes of remarks.

Court Weighs Request to Immediately Stop Phone-Data Collection

An appeals court panel is considering whether to allow the government to continue the bulk collection of phone records during a six-month transition period until a new law kicks in prohibiting the controversial program.

Search Continues for Three Suspects After Illinois Policeman Killed

As a small northern Illinois community mourned a popular veteran police officer who was fatally shot while on duty, authorities scoured the area overnight in search of three men wanted in his slaying. 72

Video

Hungarian Police Struggle to Control Migrants

2:02

The Iran Nuclear Deal Explained

3:34

Uber Class-Action Lawsuit: What's at Stake

2:39