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Stocks Tumble on Weak Chinese Data

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday as fears about a slowdown in China’s economy deepened, illustrating how last week’s market volatility has not yet abated. 273

Investors Betting on More ECB Stimulus

Six months after the European Central Bank launched its blockbuster bond-buying program to rouse the region’s economy, some investors are betting that authorities will crank stimulus efforts even higher.

Analysis

Clashing Interests Hamstring EU Response to Crisis

Europe’s migrant struggle highlights the chasm between Europe’s principles and its ability to live up to them.

Greek Polls Suggest Tough Election Test for Tsipras

Opinion polls show declining support for Greece’s Syriza party and its leader, Alexis Tsipras. But Syriza retains a lead over its opponents and the Sept. 20 election could be tight.

EU Set to Extend Sanctions on Russians, Ukraine Rebels

The EU is set to roll over until mid-March sanctions targeted against almost 200 Russian and Ukrainian-separatist individuals and firms to keep pressure on Moscow to fully implement the Minsk cease-fire terms by year end.

China Imposes New Controls to Keep Money From Leaving Country

China is imposing fresh controls to prevent too much money from leaving the country, in an effort to keep funds at home.

Pope to Make It Easier for Priests to Grant Pardons for Abortion

Pope Francis will make it easier for priests to forgive women for having had abortions, and those who assisted, during a “year of mercy” starting Dec. 8. 523

Russian Airline Aeroflot to Take Control of Carrier Transaero

Russia’s largest airline, state-controlled Aeroflot, will take control of the country’s No. 2 carrier Transaero in a government-brokered deal to stave off bankruptcy at the heavily indebted company.

Apple’s Ian Rogers Is Going to LVMH

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton has recruited Ian Rogers, a key executive from Apple, to spearhead the expansion of the luxury goods giant’s online retail presence.

‘Super-Sizing’ Natural Gas Output

Applying newer fracking techniques to a prolific natural-gas region that straddles Louisiana and Texas could give the U.S. more—and much cheaper—supplies of the fuel for many years.

U.S. Report Sees Economic Benefit in Allowing Oil Exports

Lifting the nation’s four-decade ban on oil exports wouldn’t raise gas prices and could help lower them, a government study concludes.

Bayer Separates Material Science Business

German pharmaceuticals group Bayer has moved a step closer to floating its $12.38 billion specialty chemicals business by legally and economically separating the unit, now named Covestro.

Heard on the Street

In a World Awash with Gas, Why Finding More is Good for Eni

Italy’s Eni has found a big gas field in Egypt. That highlights its strengths as the company also gets its financial house in order.

Service Providers See Gold in Shares of Startups

Branding firm Red Antler is among vendors that are looking to profit on the soaring valuations of young startups by taking payment in stock instead of cash.

Portuguese Central Bank Ends Talks With Anbang Over Novo Banco Sale

Portugal’s central bank will now enter talks with another bidder for the Portuguese bank created out of failed lender Banco Espírito Santo last year.

South African Gold Faces Uncertain Future

South Africa’s gold mining industry must undergo radical change to cope with falling prices, intensifying labor disputes and the surging cost of ever-deeper exploration.

Main Suspect in Bangkok Bombing Arrested

Thailand’s prime minister said security forces arrested a man whom they believe to be the primary suspect in the bombing of a shrine in Bangkok last month.

China’s World

In China’s Heartland, Small Cities Flourish

Fengdu on the Yangtze River is one of hundreds of smaller Chinese cities still bursting with consumer vitality. It’s if these striving cities lose momentum that China is in danger of failing, writes Andrew Browne.

Death Toll Rises After Ukraine Protest Blast

The death toll from Monday’s blast outside Ukraine’s parliament rose to three, and police said the man suspected of throwing a grenade was a volunteer fighter on leave from a unit fighting Russian-backed separatists.

Kentucky Clerk Defies High Court, Denies Gays Marriage Licenses

A county clerk in Kentucky who is defying the U.S. Supreme Court by refusing to license same-sex marriage has been summoned to explain to a federal judge why she shouldn’t face stiff fines or jail time. 948

Lebanese ‘YouStink’ Activists Occupy Minister’s Offices

Members of a grass-roots antigovernment movement occupied the offices of the environment minister in Beirut to press their demands for his resignation.

Technology

Russia Puts Off Data Showdown With Technology Firms

Facebook, Google and Twitter are among the U.S. companies that are getting more time to comply with a new law requiring Russian data centers.

Sports

Are You Good Enough to Be a Tennis Line Judge?

Watch a series of shots at full speed and decide whether each was in or out. Some will be traveling upwards of 100 miles per hour and you only get one chance to make the call. Good luck!

Soccer

FIFA May Weaken Its Executive Committee

The executive committee of FIFA, soccer’s world governing body, will be the first target of major reforms when the organization meets in Zurich next month.

Video

Hungary Stops Migrants Boarding Trains To Germany

1:46

Ukraine Protest Blast Kills Officer, Injures Dozens

0:45

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Management

Dealing With ‘Daddy Track’: Men Face Challenges Going Part Time

As women make strides in the workplace and men shoulder more caregiving duties at home, few fathers have workplace flexibility figured out. 59

Art

New Facial Details Surface Beneath a Rembrandt

Conservators at the Getty shed new light on an image hidden under “An Old Man in Military Costume.”

WSJ Blogs

Real-time commentary and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Die Zeitreise der Banken

Bankenchefs geben sich neuerdings zurückhaltend. Keiner wagt konkret zu sagen, was die Zukunft bringt. Wer weiß schon, wie stark die Inflation in 10 Jahren sein wird, welche Staaten erfolgreich ihre Reformen umsetzen und ob der Euro die Schuldenkrise in Europa überlebt. Wenn überhaupt, versuchen sich die Spitzen der Branche in Durchhalteparolen und Zweckoptimismus.

dapd
Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance, sieht schon die nächste Krise nahen.

Umso mehr lässt es aufhorchen, wenn ausgerechnet Charles Dallara, Leiter der mächtigen Bankenlobby Insitute of International Finance (IIF), einen sehr kritischen Blick in die Zukunft wagt und schon die nächste Krise nahen sieht. Obwohl sich das makroökonomische Umfeld in den vergangenen Monaten global stabilisiert hat, zeichnen sich laut Dallara neue Risiken ab. Vor allem die Niedrigzinspolitik der US-Notenbank bereitet ihm Sorgen. Ein Richtungswechsel, also höhere Zinsen, könnte die Investoren unvorbereitet treffen, das berge die Gefahr von neuen Verwerfungen an den Finanzmärkten, warnt Dallara.

Mit seiner kritischen Prognose steht Dallara nicht alleine da. Die Strategen der Unternehmensberatung Oliver Wyman zeichnen in einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2011 eine eher beunruhigende Zeitreise in das Jahr 2015. Sie beginnt mit dem fiktiven Scheitern der weltweit ältesten Bank und erklärt im Rückblick auf die Jahre 2011 bis 2015, was alles schief gelaufen ist.

Das Unglück beginnt im Jahr 2011 – genauer gesagt damit, dass wegen der strengeren Vorschriften für Banken immer mehr Geld und nicht ausgelastete Talente in die Welt der Schattenbanken abwandern. Die Banken dürfen nicht mehr so risikoreich wie früher investieren und haben Schwierigkeiten, ihre Aktionäre und Kunden mit den mageren Renditen zu halten. Einige Institute fliehen in die Märkte rohstoffreicher Schwellenländer wie Brasilien und Russland, wo die Banken weniger streng reguliert sind. Doch in diesen Ländern bildet sich wegen hoher Staatsausgaben schon die nächste Blase. Die Staaten leihen sich von ausländischen Investoren Geld, um große Projekte zu finanzieren, und übernehmen sich dabei.

Ausgelöst durch das unterdrückte Wachstum sowohl in den entwickelten Ländern als auch den Emerging Markets fällt die Wirtschaftswelt im Szenario von Oliver Wyman schließlich in eine Rezession. Die nüchterne Bilanz der Strategen: Wieder nichts gelernt aus der Krise. Auf der Jagd nach Rendite haben Banker keinen Schatz gefunden, sondern wieder nur einen Topf mit giftigem Abfall. Die schärfere Regulierung konnte die neue Blase nicht verhindern. Das Resümee: Die Subprime-Krise im Jahr 2007 wird nicht die letzte Finanzkrise sein, die nächste steht schon vor der Tür.

Die Studie will sich lösen von dem Versuch, die Zukunft vorherzusagen. Das Undenkbare denken, sich verschiedene Szenarien vorzustellen, ist ein Weg, sich zu öffnen und nicht nur die passenden Argumente für das eigene Gedankenkonstrukt zu suchen. Dazu rief der Manager und Autor Arie de Geus bereits in den 80er Jahren auf.

Mit ihrem Szenario wollen die Autoren nach eigenem Bekunden den Leser nicht deprimieren, sondern früh genug auf Fehlentwicklungen hinweisen. Die Regulierer sollten ihr Augenmerk nicht allein darauf richten, die Risiken aus den Banken zu entfernen. Denn dann, so warnen die Strategen, würden diese Risiken woanders genommen. In den Schattenbanken, die für die Aufseher viel schwieriger zu kontrollieren seien. Ihr Tipp: Neben regelmäßigen Stresstests der Banken und Versicherer sollten die Regulierungsbehörden die Belastbarkeit des gesamten Finanzsystems auf den Prüfstand stellen – und für den Fall der Fälle vorbereitet sein.

Dieser Ansatz hat Charme. Er ist vermutlich der beste, um bei der nächsten Krise nicht so überstürzt wie bisher zu handeln. Wenn die Regulierer es wagen, sich regelmäßig ein Worst-Case-Szenario auszumalen, ist es auch gleichzeitig der sicherste Weg, eben dieses zu verhindern.

Update: Die zitierte Studie stammt bereits aus dem Jahr 2011. Wir haben das in dem entsprechenden Absatz berichtigt.

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    • Die besagte Oliver Wyman Studie wurde vor mehr als einem Jahr zum Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos veröffentlicht ... (die aktuelle Studie zum diesjährigen WEF hat ein völlig anderes Thema)

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

Stocks Tumble on Weak Chinese Data

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday as fears about a slowdown in China’s economy deepened, illustrating how last week’s market volatility has not yet abated. 273

Investors Betting on More ECB Stimulus

Six months after the European Central Bank launched its blockbuster bond-buying program to rouse the region’s economy, some investors are betting that authorities will crank stimulus efforts even higher.

Analysis

Clashing Interests Hamstring EU Response to Crisis

Europe’s migrant struggle highlights the chasm between Europe’s principles and its ability to live up to them.

Greek Polls Suggest Tough Election Test for Tsipras

Opinion polls show declining support for Greece’s Syriza party and its leader, Alexis Tsipras. But Syriza retains a lead over its opponents and the Sept. 20 election could be tight.

EU Set to Extend Sanctions on Russians, Ukraine Rebels

The EU is set to roll over until mid-March sanctions targeted against almost 200 Russian and Ukrainian-separatist individuals and firms to keep pressure on Moscow to fully implement the Minsk cease-fire terms by year end.

China Imposes New Controls to Keep Money From Leaving Country

China is imposing fresh controls to prevent too much money from leaving the country, in an effort to keep funds at home.

Pope to Make It Easier for Priests to Grant Pardons for Abortion

Pope Francis will make it easier for priests to forgive women for having had abortions, and those who assisted, during a “year of mercy” starting Dec. 8. 523

Russian Airline Aeroflot to Take Control of Carrier Transaero

Russia’s largest airline, state-controlled Aeroflot, will take control of the country’s No. 2 carrier Transaero in a government-brokered deal to stave off bankruptcy at the heavily indebted company.

Apple’s Ian Rogers Is Going to LVMH

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton has recruited Ian Rogers, a key executive from Apple, to spearhead the expansion of the luxury goods giant’s online retail presence.

‘Super-Sizing’ Natural Gas Output

Applying newer fracking techniques to a prolific natural-gas region that straddles Louisiana and Texas could give the U.S. more—and much cheaper—supplies of the fuel for many years.

U.S. Report Sees Economic Benefit in Allowing Oil Exports

Lifting the nation’s four-decade ban on oil exports wouldn’t raise gas prices and could help lower them, a government study concludes.

Bayer Separates Material Science Business

German pharmaceuticals group Bayer has moved a step closer to floating its $12.38 billion specialty chemicals business by legally and economically separating the unit, now named Covestro.

Heard on the Street

In a World Awash with Gas, Why Finding More is Good for Eni

Italy’s Eni has found a big gas field in Egypt. That highlights its strengths as the company also gets its financial house in order.

Service Providers See Gold in Shares of Startups

Branding firm Red Antler is among vendors that are looking to profit on the soaring valuations of young startups by taking payment in stock instead of cash.

Portuguese Central Bank Ends Talks With Anbang Over Novo Banco Sale

Portugal’s central bank will now enter talks with another bidder for the Portuguese bank created out of failed lender Banco Espírito Santo last year.

South African Gold Faces Uncertain Future

South Africa’s gold mining industry must undergo radical change to cope with falling prices, intensifying labor disputes and the surging cost of ever-deeper exploration.

Main Suspect in Bangkok Bombing Arrested

Thailand’s prime minister said security forces arrested a man whom they believe to be the primary suspect in the bombing of a shrine in Bangkok last month.

China’s World

In China’s Heartland, Small Cities Flourish

Fengdu on the Yangtze River is one of hundreds of smaller Chinese cities still bursting with consumer vitality. It’s if these striving cities lose momentum that China is in danger of failing, writes Andrew Browne.

Death Toll Rises After Ukraine Protest Blast

The death toll from Monday’s blast outside Ukraine’s parliament rose to three, and police said the man suspected of throwing a grenade was a volunteer fighter on leave from a unit fighting Russian-backed separatists.

Kentucky Clerk Defies High Court, Denies Gays Marriage Licenses

A county clerk in Kentucky who is defying the U.S. Supreme Court by refusing to license same-sex marriage has been summoned to explain to a federal judge why she shouldn’t face stiff fines or jail time. 947

Lebanese ‘YouStink’ Activists Occupy Minister’s Offices

Members of a grass-roots antigovernment movement occupied the offices of the environment minister in Beirut to press their demands for his resignation.

Technology

Russia Puts Off Data Showdown With Technology Firms

Facebook, Google and Twitter are among the U.S. companies that are getting more time to comply with a new law requiring Russian data centers.

Sports

Are You Good Enough to Be a Tennis Line Judge?

Watch a series of shots at full speed and decide whether each was in or out. Some will be traveling upwards of 100 miles per hour and you only get one chance to make the call. Good luck!

Soccer

FIFA May Weaken Its Executive Committee

The executive committee of FIFA, soccer’s world governing body, will be the first target of major reforms when the organization meets in Zurich next month.

Video

Hungary Stops Migrants Boarding Trains To Germany

1:46

Ukraine Protest Blast Kills Officer, Injures Dozens

0:45

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38