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Migrant Crisis Divides Europe

Germany and France press the rest of Europe to end squabbling over its exploding numbers of refugees as Hungarian leader says his country doesn’t want ‘a large number of Muslim people.’

Image of Syrian Boy Echoes Around World

The 3-year-old was a Syrian Kurd whose relatives’ efforts to emigrate to Canada had been rebuffed, according to media and Kurdish activists. 598

Kentucky Clerk Jailed Over Gay Marriage Licenses

A federal judge declared a Kentucky county clerk who opposes same-sex marriage on religious grounds in contempt of court for defying his order to issue marriage licenses, and sent the clerk to jail until she complies. 2254

Brussels Beat

EU Displaces U.S. as Top Antitrust Cop

The European Union’s antitrust activism has put it in prime position to shape the Internet and is encouraging some U.S. technology executives to focus on Brussels.

ECB Willing to Expand Stimulus Amid Growth Worry

ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank stands ready to expand its stimulus programs and projected slower-than-expected economic growth in the eurozone, as well as lower inflation rates.

Jobs Report Could Seal Deal on Rates

The August employment report could make or break the case for the Federal Reserve raising rates this month.

E-Book Sales Weaken Amid Higher Prices

E-book revenue is falling, and some people in the publishing industry say it is partly because of the higher prices that have resulted from new contracts negotiated with Amazon. 53

Andy Murray’s Shoes Take Center Stage

Andy Murray wore Adidas shoes for his first two matches of the U.S. Open this week despite a multimillion-dollar endorsement deal with rival Under Armour.

Volkswagen CFO Nominated as Board Chairman

The largest shareholder of Europe’s biggest auto maker nominated the company’s finance chief to become the next chairman of the VW supervisory board.

Jaguar Lowering Prices to Better Compete in U.S. Luxury Market

Jaguar is lowering prices in the U.S. to better play in the cutthroat environment luxury car brands face in appealing to American vehicle buyers.

Credit-Card Fraudsters Pump Gas Stations for Profit

As motorists head out on the last big driving weekend of the summer, the credit-card industry and gas-station owners are deploying everything from sophisticated software to heavy-duty padlocks to combat an epidemic of fuel-related theft and fraud. 76

Private-Equity Firms Plunge Back Into the Oil Patch

Private-equity firms are doubling down on energy, despite heavy damage from their last adventure in the sector.

Traders Ride the ETF Roller Coaster

Mom-and-pop investors who trade in exchange-traded funds and notes linked to commodities have experienced some of the roughest volatility over the past several weeks.

All-Night Push After Glitch Hit BNY Mellon

At the height of the Aug. 24 market volatility, executives at Bank of New York Mellon got the news they wanted to hear: A glitch affecting a key system was likely to be fixed soon. But the problem was far from over.

Middle East Crossroads

Yemen’s Unity Frays in Leaderless Aden

The battles of recent months have reopened historic divisions between Yemen’s north and south, writes Yaroslav Trofimov.

Justice Department Changes Policy on Cellphone Surveillance

The Justice Department is changing the way it uses secret technology to find and track cellphones, adding more judicial and internal supervision to a practice that critics say invades privacy and has had too little oversight for years.

NATO Opens Post in Lithuania

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization inaugurated a new command post in Lithuania, one of six across the alliance’s eastern border meant to shore up the region’s defenses against Russia.

Iran Parliament to Decide on Nuclear Deal

Iran’s parliament will have the final say on approving or rejecting the landmark nuclear agreement forged with world powers in July, top Iranian officials said, raising fresh uncertainty about the deal.

Off Duty

Adventure & Travel

Not Far From Prague, a Czech Village Worth Rhapsodizing About

The frozen-in-time town of Český Krumlov has scenery and history—and beer—that keeps travelers coming back.

Arts

Film Review

‘La Jaula de Oro (The Golden Dream)’ Review: Dark Immigrant Odyssey

In Diego Quemada-Diez’s celebrated directorial debut, a trio of teenagers flee from Guatemala and make their way through a treacherous Mexico, where police and gangsters prey on vulnerable travelers.

20 Odd Questions

Manolo Blahnik on Old Films and Kate Moss

The shoe designer on what he’d blow his money on, the drama behind Kate Moss’s wedding shoes and exactly how he feels about fake Manolos.

Video

Father of Drowned Syrian Boy Describes His Sorrow

1:52

Tesla's New Model X SUV Finally Set for Delivery

2:25

Are Baby Monitor Flaws Inviting Hackers Into Homes?

3:45

Books

How ‘A Little Life’ Became a Sleeper Hit

No one expected Hanya Yanagihara’s “A Little Life” to be a best seller. But the 720-page sleeper hit of the summer has fans dissolving in tears-—and declaring it the best book they’ve ever read.

What to Read This Fall

Heavy hitters Elena Ferrante, Isabel Allende and Jonathan Franzen weigh in with new work, while first-time novelists Garth Risk Hallberg and Chinelo Okparanta offer buzzy debuts. Actress Mary-Louise Parker pens an unconventional memoir.

WSJ Blogs

Real-time commentary and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Superbowl: Die “Falschen” haben gewonnen

Getty Images
Ray Lewis von den Baltimore Ravens hält die begehrte Trophäe nach dem Gewinn des Superbowl in den Händen.

34:31 haben die Baltimore Ravens in der Nacht zum Montag den Superbowl gegen die San Francisco 49ers gewonnen. Ein enger Ausgang des Endspiels in der Nordamerikanischen Footballliga NFL mit einem spektakulären Spielverlauf, so wie es sportbegeisterte Fans mögen. 28:6 stand es für die Ravens bereits, ehe als ungeplanter weiterer Höhepunkt der Blackout kam: Eine halbe Stunde ging im Superdome von New Orleans, der nach dem Hurrikan Katrina für mehrere hundert Millionen Dollar renoviert worden war, nichts mehr, weil die Stromversorgung zusammengebrochen war.

Als der Strom wieder da war, drehten auch die 49ers noch einmal mächtig auf und kamen kurz vor Ende des Spiels noch auf 29:31 heran. Drehen konnten sie das Spiel aber nicht mehr, und das hat vermutlich nicht nur eingefleischten 49er Fans das Herz gebrochen. Auch der ein oder andere Börsenhändler dürfte ins Grübeln gekommen sein, vorausgesetzt er ist ein Anhänger des sogenannten Superbowl-Indikators.

Der besagt nämlich, dass es eigentlich egal ist, welche Mannschaft gewinnt, Hauptsache sie kommt aus der National Football Conference NFC und nicht aus der American Football Conference AFC. Dann nämlich ist – rein statistisch gesehen – mit erhöhter Wahrscheinlichkeit davon auzugehen, dass die Aktienkurse ein gutes Jahr erleben werden.

Dummerweise kommen dieses Mal die Ravens aber aus der AFC. Ein schwarzer Montag ist deswegen an Wall Street aber nicht zu befürchten und auch in Europa ist von einem Ausverkauf bei Aktien (noch) nichts zu sehen. Dafür hat die Superbowl-Börsenregel in den vergangenen Jahren auch viel zu sehr an Treffsicherheit eingebüßt.

Eine Zeit lang konnte sich der Superbowl-Indikator tatsächlich sehen lassen, wobei die Angaben über seine Treffergenauigkeit schwanken. Von 1971 bis 1997 soll sie noch bei rund 75 Prozent gelegen haben. Seitdem war auf Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends und Runningbacks und Co. aber immer weniger Verlass. So soll die Trefferquote 2012 schon nur noch bei 59 Prozent gelegen haben, womit wir uns immer mehr der statistischen Mitte bei 50 Prozent nähern und footballbegeisterte Aktionäre auch einfach eine Münze werfen könnten.

Wer dennoch an den Superbowl-Indikator glaubt und auf einem dicken Aktienpaket sitzt, dem sei damit Hoffnung gemacht, dass 2008, im Jahr der Lehman-Pleite, als es mit dem Deutschen Aktienindex Dax um 40 Prozent nach unten ging, die New York Giants aus der NFC den Superbowl gewonnen haben, also eigentlich die Richtigen. Im Jahr darauf war es umgekehrt. 2009 trugen die Pittsburgh Steelers aus der AFC die Trophäe nach Hause und der Dax beendete das Jahr mit einem Plus von gut 20 Prozent.

 

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

Migrant Crisis Divides Europe

Germany and France press the rest of Europe to end squabbling over its exploding numbers of refugees as Hungarian leader says his country doesn’t want ‘a large number of Muslim people.’

Image of Syrian Boy Echoes Around World

The 3-year-old was a Syrian Kurd whose relatives’ efforts to emigrate to Canada had been rebuffed, according to media and Kurdish activists. 607

Kentucky Clerk Jailed Over Gay Marriage Licenses

A federal judge declared a Kentucky county clerk who opposes same-sex marriage on religious grounds in contempt of court for defying his order to issue marriage licenses, and sent the clerk to jail until she complies. 2305

Brussels Beat

EU Displaces U.S. as Top Antitrust Cop

The European Union’s antitrust activism has put it in prime position to shape the Internet and is encouraging some U.S. technology executives to focus on Brussels.

ECB Willing to Expand Stimulus Amid Growth Worry

ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank stands ready to expand its stimulus programs and projected slower-than-expected economic growth in the eurozone, as well as lower inflation rates.

Jobs Report Could Seal Deal on Rates

The August employment report could make or break the case for the Federal Reserve raising rates this month.

E-Book Sales Weaken Amid Higher Prices

E-book revenue is falling, and some people in the publishing industry say it is partly because of the higher prices that have resulted from new contracts negotiated with Amazon. 55

Andy Murray’s Shoes Take Center Stage

Andy Murray wore Adidas shoes for his first two matches of the U.S. Open this week despite a multimillion-dollar endorsement deal with rival Under Armour.

Volkswagen CFO Nominated as Board Chairman

The largest shareholder of Europe’s biggest auto maker nominated the company’s finance chief to become the next chairman of the VW supervisory board.

Jaguar Lowering Prices to Better Compete in U.S. Luxury Market

Jaguar is lowering prices in the U.S. to better play in the cutthroat environment luxury car brands face in appealing to American vehicle buyers.

Credit-Card Fraudsters Pump Gas Stations for Profit

As motorists head out on the last big driving weekend of the summer, the credit-card industry and gas-station owners are deploying everything from sophisticated software to heavy-duty padlocks to combat an epidemic of fuel-related theft and fraud. 77

Private-Equity Firms Plunge Back Into the Oil Patch

Private-equity firms are doubling down on energy, despite heavy damage from their last adventure in the sector.

Traders Ride the ETF Roller Coaster

Mom-and-pop investors who trade in exchange-traded funds and notes linked to commodities have experienced some of the roughest volatility over the past several weeks.

All-Night Push After Glitch Hit BNY Mellon

At the height of the Aug. 24 market volatility, executives at Bank of New York Mellon got the news they wanted to hear: A glitch affecting a key system was likely to be fixed soon. But the problem was far from over.

Middle East Crossroads

Yemen’s Unity Frays in Leaderless Aden

The battles of recent months have reopened historic divisions between Yemen’s north and south, writes Yaroslav Trofimov.

Justice Department Changes Policy on Cellphone Surveillance

The Justice Department is changing the way it uses secret technology to find and track cellphones, adding more judicial and internal supervision to a practice that critics say invades privacy and has had too little oversight for years.

NATO Opens Post in Lithuania

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization inaugurated a new command post in Lithuania, one of six across the alliance’s eastern border meant to shore up the region’s defenses against Russia.

Iran Parliament to Decide on Nuclear Deal

Iran’s parliament will have the final say on approving or rejecting the landmark nuclear agreement forged with world powers in July, top Iranian officials said, raising fresh uncertainty about the deal.

Off Duty

Adventure & Travel

Not Far From Prague, a Czech Village Worth Rhapsodizing About

The frozen-in-time town of Český Krumlov has scenery and history—and beer—that keeps travelers coming back.

Arts

Film Review

‘La Jaula de Oro (The Golden Dream)’ Review: Dark Immigrant Odyssey

In Diego Quemada-Diez’s celebrated directorial debut, a trio of teenagers flee from Guatemala and make their way through a treacherous Mexico, where police and gangsters prey on vulnerable travelers.

20 Odd Questions

Manolo Blahnik on Old Films and Kate Moss

The shoe designer on what he’d blow his money on, the drama behind Kate Moss’s wedding shoes and exactly how he feels about fake Manolos.

Video

Father of Drowned Syrian Boy Describes His Sorrow

1:52

Tesla's New Model X SUV Finally Set for Delivery

2:25

Are Baby Monitor Flaws Inviting Hackers Into Homes?

3:45