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Grim Toll of Migrant Crisis Rises on Sea, Land

The latest deaths of migrants both on land and at sea are shedding light on the brutal tactics of the people-smuggling operations that stretch from across the Mediterranean to deep within Europe’s borders.

Stock Swings Don’t Shake Investors

Stock indexes’ wildest week in years rattled investors and fueled expectations for further price swings, but it failed to squelch the belief U.S. markets remain the best place to put money.

Egyptian Court Sentences Al Jazeera Journalists

An Egyptian court found three Al Jazeera English journalists guilty Saturday on charges including broadcasting false news, sentencing them to three years in prison.

Foes Try New Ways To Attack Iran Deal

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), right, listens to Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.) last month in Washington, D.C.

Congressional opponents of the Iranian nuclear accord are devising a Plan B as President Obama moves closer to locking up the support needed to implement the deal. 169

Treading Line Between War and Peace, U.S. Special Forces Groom Afghan Troops

Special-operations units are trying to get their local counterparts ready for combat before American troops leave Afghanistan.

Central Bankers Rethink Views on Inflation

Central bankers aren’t sure they understand how inflation works anymore. Inflation didn’t fall as much as many expected during the financial crisis and it hasn’t bounced back as they predicted when the economy recovered and unemployment fell.

Foreign Man Arrested in Bangkok Blast Probe

Thai police said they arrested a foreign man whom they described as a suspect in this month’s deadly bombing of a Bangkok shrine that is popular with Chinese tourists.

Syngenta Shareholders Not Happy

Some Syngenta shareholders are angry about the pesticide-and-seed giant’s rejection of takeover proposals from rival Monsanto, which abandoned its pursuit this week.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

China’s Moves Won’t Help U.S. Tech Firms

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening local companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals.

European Refiners’ Profit Revival Faces End

Europe’s biggest energy companies have enjoyed a revival of refinery profits, but that run may be winding down even as oil prices slump.

Tesla Wants White House to Press China

Tesla Motors wants the Obama administration to talk to Xi Jinping about making it easier for auto makers to do business in China during the Chinese president’s visit to the U.S.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

How Do You Short China?

Traders are scouring stock, bond and currency markets for ways to make money on the malaise afflicting China. Some are piling into insurance-like contracts that would pay out if the country defaulted on a small pool of its foreign-denominated bonds.

Myanmar Buzz Fades for Many U.S. Investors

Disenchantment with the business climate, especially among American companies, comes as concerns are spreading about Myanmar’s political future.

A ‘Black Swan’ Fund Made $1 Billion This Week

Universa Hedge Fund, a well-known ‘black swan’ fund, made more than $1 billion in profits in one week amid volatility.

Lebanon’s youth-led “You Stink” movement initially formed as a protest against mounds of uncollected garbage in Beirut. Now it wants political change.

Anger Over Garbage in Lebanon Blossoms into Demands for Reform

Calls for political reform, however, collide with country’s entrenched, sectarian-based political system.

Malaysia Police on Alert as Thousands Protest

Malaysian police deployed hundreds of riot police around the center of the capital Kuala Lumpur ahead of what is shaping up as a massive weekend protest, the latest challenge to Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Pro-Kurdish Party Joins Interim Government in Turkey

The power-sharing lineup unveiled by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also includes several independent appointees.

China’s World

Markets? To Xi Jinping, Another Battle Comes First

Those who think a wilting economy and stock-market turmoil may divert Xi Jinping’s focus from his anticorruption campaign misunderstand his priorities, writes Andrew Browne. 58

Mansion

A Swedish Couple’s Lakeside Oasis

Entrepreneur Olof Sköld and his partner, Helene Carson, build a retreat for their family

Review

Essay

The Lessons of Out-of-Body Experiences

Powerful, unnerving hallucinations show there’s something malleable about the way our brains construct our sense of self.

Historically Speaking

A History of Star-Crossed Lovers

Lovers separated by cruel circumstance have played a role in history and literature for millennia. Amanda Foreman looks at Berenice and Titus, Abelard and Heloise and more

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09

On Wine: Will Lyons

Why Gin Is Back With a Flourish

Gin is experiencing the kind of boom the wine industry experienced in the mid-1980s, as boutique-distilled bottles with names like Half Hitch, Opihr and Ransom Old Tom give the classic G&T a new—and flavorful—twist

Music

Foals’ ‘What Went Down’ Is a Visceral Confessional

Yannis Philippakis, the lead singer whose energetic stage presence and novelistic lyrics have made Foals one of British rock’s most compelling propositions, talks about the band’s fourth album.

WSJ Blogs

Real-time commentary and analysis from The Wall Street Journal
Die Seite Drei
Schnelle Analysen und Beobachtungen zum Zeitgeschehen

Superbowl: Die “Falschen” haben gewonnen

Getty Images
Ray Lewis von den Baltimore Ravens hält die begehrte Trophäe nach dem Gewinn des Superbowl in den Händen.

34:31 haben die Baltimore Ravens in der Nacht zum Montag den Superbowl gegen die San Francisco 49ers gewonnen. Ein enger Ausgang des Endspiels in der Nordamerikanischen Footballliga NFL mit einem spektakulären Spielverlauf, so wie es sportbegeisterte Fans mögen. 28:6 stand es für die Ravens bereits, ehe als ungeplanter weiterer Höhepunkt der Blackout kam: Eine halbe Stunde ging im Superdome von New Orleans, der nach dem Hurrikan Katrina für mehrere hundert Millionen Dollar renoviert worden war, nichts mehr, weil die Stromversorgung zusammengebrochen war.

Als der Strom wieder da war, drehten auch die 49ers noch einmal mächtig auf und kamen kurz vor Ende des Spiels noch auf 29:31 heran. Drehen konnten sie das Spiel aber nicht mehr, und das hat vermutlich nicht nur eingefleischten 49er Fans das Herz gebrochen. Auch der ein oder andere Börsenhändler dürfte ins Grübeln gekommen sein, vorausgesetzt er ist ein Anhänger des sogenannten Superbowl-Indikators.

Der besagt nämlich, dass es eigentlich egal ist, welche Mannschaft gewinnt, Hauptsache sie kommt aus der National Football Conference NFC und nicht aus der American Football Conference AFC. Dann nämlich ist – rein statistisch gesehen – mit erhöhter Wahrscheinlichkeit davon auzugehen, dass die Aktienkurse ein gutes Jahr erleben werden.

Dummerweise kommen dieses Mal die Ravens aber aus der AFC. Ein schwarzer Montag ist deswegen an Wall Street aber nicht zu befürchten und auch in Europa ist von einem Ausverkauf bei Aktien (noch) nichts zu sehen. Dafür hat die Superbowl-Börsenregel in den vergangenen Jahren auch viel zu sehr an Treffsicherheit eingebüßt.

Eine Zeit lang konnte sich der Superbowl-Indikator tatsächlich sehen lassen, wobei die Angaben über seine Treffergenauigkeit schwanken. Von 1971 bis 1997 soll sie noch bei rund 75 Prozent gelegen haben. Seitdem war auf Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends und Runningbacks und Co. aber immer weniger Verlass. So soll die Trefferquote 2012 schon nur noch bei 59 Prozent gelegen haben, womit wir uns immer mehr der statistischen Mitte bei 50 Prozent nähern und footballbegeisterte Aktionäre auch einfach eine Münze werfen könnten.

Wer dennoch an den Superbowl-Indikator glaubt und auf einem dicken Aktienpaket sitzt, dem sei damit Hoffnung gemacht, dass 2008, im Jahr der Lehman-Pleite, als es mit dem Deutschen Aktienindex Dax um 40 Prozent nach unten ging, die New York Giants aus der NFC den Superbowl gewonnen haben, also eigentlich die Richtigen. Im Jahr darauf war es umgekehrt. 2009 trugen die Pittsburgh Steelers aus der AFC die Trophäe nach Hause und der Dax beendete das Jahr mit einem Plus von gut 20 Prozent.

 

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The Wall Street Journal & Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News and Video
Search

Grim Toll of Migrant Crisis Rises on Sea, Land

The latest deaths of migrants both on land and at sea are shedding light on the brutal tactics of the people-smuggling operations that stretch from across the Mediterranean to deep within Europe’s borders.

Stock Swings Don’t Shake Investors

Stock indexes’ wildest week in years rattled investors and fueled expectations for further price swings, but it failed to squelch the belief U.S. markets remain the best place to put money.

Egyptian Court Sentences Al Jazeera Journalists

An Egyptian court found three Al Jazeera English journalists guilty Saturday on charges including broadcasting false news, sentencing them to three years in prison.

Foes Try New Ways To Attack Iran Deal

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), right, listens to Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.) last month in Washington, D.C.

Congressional opponents of the Iranian nuclear accord are devising a Plan B as President Obama moves closer to locking up the support needed to implement the deal. 169

Treading Line Between War and Peace, U.S. Special Forces Groom Afghan Troops

Special-operations units are trying to get their local counterparts ready for combat before American troops leave Afghanistan.

Central Bankers Rethink Views on Inflation

Central bankers aren’t sure they understand how inflation works anymore. Inflation didn’t fall as much as many expected during the financial crisis and it hasn’t bounced back as they predicted when the economy recovered and unemployment fell.

Foreign Man Arrested in Bangkok Blast Probe

Thai police said they arrested a foreign man whom they described as a suspect in this month’s deadly bombing of a Bangkok shrine that is popular with Chinese tourists.

Syngenta Shareholders Not Happy

Some Syngenta shareholders are angry about the pesticide-and-seed giant’s rejection of takeover proposals from rival Monsanto, which abandoned its pursuit this week.

Inmarsat Says Russian Proton Rocket Puts Satellite Into Orbit

Inmarsat declared the launch of a Russian Proton rocket carrying one of its satellites a success after the rocket delivered its cargo into its initial orbit position.

China’s Moves Won’t Help U.S. Tech Firms

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening local companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals.

European Refiners’ Profit Revival Faces End

Europe’s biggest energy companies have enjoyed a revival of refinery profits, but that run may be winding down even as oil prices slump.

Tesla Wants White House to Press China

Tesla Motors wants the Obama administration to talk to Xi Jinping about making it easier for auto makers to do business in China during the Chinese president’s visit to the U.S.

Buying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone

The old strategy of buying the dips may not work for everyone. In fact, for some people, it could be disastrous, writes Jason Zweig.

How Do You Short China?

Traders are scouring stock, bond and currency markets for ways to make money on the malaise afflicting China. Some are piling into insurance-like contracts that would pay out if the country defaulted on a small pool of its foreign-denominated bonds.

Myanmar Buzz Fades for Many U.S. Investors

Disenchantment with the business climate, especially among American companies, comes as concerns are spreading about Myanmar’s political future.

A ‘Black Swan’ Fund Made $1 Billion This Week

Universa Hedge Fund, a well-known ‘black swan’ fund, made more than $1 billion in profits in one week amid volatility.

Lebanon’s youth-led “You Stink” movement initially formed as a protest against mounds of uncollected garbage in Beirut. Now it wants political change.

Anger Over Garbage in Lebanon Blossoms into Demands for Reform

Calls for political reform, however, collide with country’s entrenched, sectarian-based political system.

Malaysia Police on Alert as Thousands Protest

Malaysian police deployed hundreds of riot police around the center of the capital Kuala Lumpur ahead of what is shaping up as a massive weekend protest, the latest challenge to Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Pro-Kurdish Party Joins Interim Government in Turkey

The power-sharing lineup unveiled by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also includes several independent appointees.

China’s World

Markets? To Xi Jinping, Another Battle Comes First

Those who think a wilting economy and stock-market turmoil may divert Xi Jinping’s focus from his anticorruption campaign misunderstand his priorities, writes Andrew Browne. 58

Mansion

A Swedish Couple’s Lakeside Oasis

Entrepreneur Olof Sköld and his partner, Helene Carson, build a retreat for their family

Review

Essay

The Lessons of Out-of-Body Experiences

Powerful, unnerving hallucinations show there’s something malleable about the way our brains construct our sense of self.

Historically Speaking

A History of Star-Crossed Lovers

Lovers separated by cruel circumstance have played a role in history and literature for millennia. Amanda Foreman looks at Berenice and Titus, Abelard and Heloise and more

Video

Body Count Rises in Migrant Effort to Reach Europe

1:38

Lebanese ‘Stink’ Protest Turns Toward Politicians

2:11

Buzz Aldrin Developing Plan to Colonize Mars

1:09